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Arakan Army Dominance in Rakhine State: An Insight on Border Security and Associated Strategic Risks for Bangladesh

Keywords

Abstract

The speed at which the non-state actors consolidated and expanded control over the two states (Rakhine State and Chin State) is a significant change in the regional security scenario with direct implications on border management and strategic equilibrium of Bangladesh. The paper is inspired by the emergence of Arakan Army that has been in a state of excessive territorial control and dominance in Rakhine State on the south-eastern side of Bangladesh at the time when a population of 1.2 million Rohingya are yet to be repatriated. The research followed a qualitative situational study and analysis based on recent reports of conflict, regional security evaluation, and border risks dynamics to analyse how the changing situations influence cross border stability and security issues. The analysis suggests that the declining control of Myanmar Government in Rakhine State has multiple linked risks for Bangladesh. Such risks include the rampant growth of drug and human trafficking networks, the likelihood of skirmishes at the borders due to lack of functioning command and control structure, and the increasing risk of new influx of remaining 0.6 million Rohingya in Rakhine State. The study also points out suspension of repatriation prospects of the 1.2 million Rohingyas living within Bangladesh, mounting maritime insecurity, and non-traditional security concerns in the Bay of Bengal as strategic risks. The paper concludes by suggesting that dominance of the Arakan Army represents a long-term security problem in border governance, as opposed to a temporary or short-term security issue. Therefore, these security dynamics along Bangladesh-Myanmar border requires adoption of integrated and coordinated border management, maritime vigilance and surveillance, real time intelligence collection and humanitarian preparedness to mitigate the long-term strategic vulnerabilities.

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